How do you know if an area is undersupplied with care beds?

Divide the registered care beds in the area by the population aged 85 and over, multiply by 100, then compare with the England average of about 32.5. Sitting materially below the national rate signals undersupply. Refine the read by checking the registration mix and how much of the stock is rated Requires improvement or Inadequate.

What counts as a good beds-per-100-aged-85+ figure?

There is no single right number, but the national reference is about 32.5 beds per 100 aged 85 and over. A common working rule flags areas more than roughly 15 percent below that as undersupplied and a similar margin above as oversupplied. The benchmark is best computed from current data, since it moves as beds and population change.

Can an area be oversupplied now but undersupplied later?

Yes, and these are often the best opportunities. The over-85 population is projected to grow by around 65 percent by 2043 nationally, unevenly across the country. An area that is balanced or even oversupplied today can cross into shortage within a scheme's life if its older population is rising fast, which a today-only screen misses.

Where can I see care undersupply by local authority?

Threshold publishes the beds, beds-per-100 ratio, national verdict and projected 2043 position for every English local authority in its care data library, drawn from CQC and ONS open data. It is a fast way to shortlist undersupplied markets before committing to a site search.

Where care beds are undersupplied in England: a data-led method

Threshold Guides · 8 min read · England & Wales

Every care developer wants the same thing: a site in a market that is genuinely short of beds, and will be shorter still by the time the scheme opens. The good news is that undersupply is measurable from official open data. The catch is that the obvious snapshot, beds against today's older population, misses the places where an ageing population is about to turn a balanced market into a shortage. This guide sets out the method, the traps, and how to screen the whole of England quickly.

The one ratio that frames the question

Undersupply has a standard measure: registered beds per 100 residents aged 85 and over. You take the beds in an area from the CQC register, divide by the over-85 population from ONS, and multiply by 100. The 85-plus band is the right denominator because the probability of needing residential or nursing care climbs steeply with age; the 75-plus population is a useful leading indicator of what is coming behind it. Across England the figure sits at about 32.5 beds per 100 aged 85 and over, a benchmark best computed from the live data rather than assumed, because it drifts as both supply and population move. It also pays to be clear about what you are counting: registered care home beds, not domiciliary home-care packages or retirement flats, since only registered beds compete for the same residents as a new home.

Reading the national benchmark honestly

The national rate is a reference line, not a target every area should hit. A sensible working rule is to flag an area as undersupplied when it sits more than about 15 percent below the national rate, and oversupplied when it sits a similar margin above, with everything in between read as broadly in line. The band matters because bed counts are lumpy: in a small area one home opening or closing can move the ratio by several points, so treat a marginal reading as a prompt to look closer rather than a settled verdict. Beyond that, two areas on the same ratio can be very different propositions once you look at what the beds are and who they serve:

Registration mix. A count dominated by nursing beds can leave a residential gap, and the reverse also holds; an area with almost no dementia-registered beds can be short of exactly the provision demand is growing fastest for.
Quality. Beds in homes rated Requires improvement or Inadequate are not durable supply. An area that looks in line on paper but carries a large share of at-risk beds is tighter than the ratio suggests.

Why balanced today can mean short by 2043

This is the single most important idea in care-site screening. The over-85 population is not static: nationally it is projected to grow by around 65 percent by 2043 (roughly 1.47 million to about 2.42 million, on the ONS 2022-based projections), and that growth is spread very unevenly. Hold an area's beds constant, grow its over-85 denominator by its own projected rate, and the beds-per-100 ratio falls. An area that is comfortably supplied today but ageing quickly can cross into real shortage well inside a scheme's operating life, while an area that looks oversupplied but has flat demographics may simply stay that way.

The move that matters. Screen every area twice: once on today's ratio, and once on a projected ratio that holds beds flat and grows the 85-plus population to 2043. The places that are near the line today but rise fastest are the opportunities most competitors miss, because a today-only screen files them under adequate.

The kinds of markets that hide undersupply

Without inventing a league table (the live data does that job, and it changes month to month), it helps to know the shapes to look for:

Ageing affluent and coastal areas where the over-85 population is large and growing, and some of the existing stock is dated.
Growth suburbs where the 85-plus band is rising fast off a low base, so today's modest bed count will not keep pace.
Quality-thin markets where the headline bed count looks fine but a big share sits in homes rated Requires improvement or Inadequate.
Provision-gap markets where total beds are adequate but nursing or dementia registration is scarce relative to how demand is shifting.

The common thread is that a single headline number rarely settles the question; the shape underneath it does, which is why the quality mix and the projection deserve as much attention as the ratio itself.

Screening the whole country quickly

Doing this by hand, joining CQC locations to ONS small-area population and projections for hundreds of authorities, is a project in itself. It is far faster to read it off pages built for the purpose. Threshold publishes the demand and supply picture for every English local authority: the registered beds, the beds-per-100 ratio, the verdict against the national rate, and the projected 2043 position, with the quality profile of the existing stock alongside. That lets you shortlist markets in an afternoon rather than a fortnight, then drill into the ones worth a site search.

From national screen to a specific site

An area-level screen tells you where to look; it does not appraise a plot. Bed supply is lumpy and local, so an authority that reads as adequate can contain a town that is badly short, and the reverse is equally true. Once a market clears the screen, test the actual site: draw a real catchment around it (see care home catchment analysis) and read the over-85 demand and competing beds within reach. In Threshold Care that is a single pin drop: catchment demand, every competing home and its CQC rating, the gap, and a maximum land bid, in under 60 seconds. The national picture finds the haystack; the catchment finds the needle.

Frequently asked questions

How do you know if an area is undersupplied with care beds?: Divide the registered care beds in the area by the population aged 85 and over, multiply by 100, then compare with the England average of about 32.5. Sitting materially below the national rate signals undersupply. Refine the read by checking the registration mix and how much of the stock is rated Requires improvement or Inadequate.
What counts as a good beds-per-100-aged-85+ figure?: There is no single right number, but the national reference is about 32.5 beds per 100 aged 85 and over. A common working rule flags areas more than roughly 15 percent below that as undersupplied and a similar margin above as oversupplied. The benchmark is best computed from current data, since it moves as beds and population change.
Can an area be oversupplied now but undersupplied later?: Yes, and these are often the best opportunities. The over-85 population is projected to grow by around 65 percent by 2043 nationally, unevenly across the country. An area that is balanced or even oversupplied today can cross into shortage within a scheme's life if its older population is rising fast, which a today-only screen misses.
Where can I see care undersupply by local authority?: Threshold publishes the beds, beds-per-100 ratio, national verdict and projected 2043 position for every English local authority in its care data library, drawn from CQC and ONS open data. It is a fast way to shortlist undersupplied markets before committing to a site search.

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Care figures are statistical estimates from official open data (CQC HSCA Active Locations, ONS population and 2022-based subnational projections) under the Open Government Licence. England coverage. Not investment or valuation advice.