Care home demand & bed supply, by area

Where are care beds short today, and where does an ageing population turn a balanced market into a shortage? This is CQC-registered bed supply set against ONS over-85 demand for every local authority in England — the same open data behind Threshold Care. Nationally there are 32.5 beds per 100 residents aged 85+; that population is projected to grow +64.9% (1,466,301 → 2,418,417) by 2043, implying on the order of 261,947 more beds just to stand still.

By region

Balanced today, short by 2043

The places most easily missed: adequate now, but ageing fast enough to open a real gap.

• Dorset — in line with national today (28.2/100), but +75.7% growth leaves a 4,595-bed gap by 2043.
• Wiltshire — in line with national today (33.9/100), but +86.3% growth leaves a 4,052-bed gap by 2043.
• Buckinghamshire — in line with national today (31.7/100), but +66.9% growth leaves a 3,443-bed gap by 2043.
• Northumberland — in line with national today (35.2/100), but +91.6% growth leaves a 2,685-bed gap by 2043.
• East Suffolk — in line with national today (31/100), but +75.1% growth leaves a 2,576-bed gap by 2043.
• Shropshire — in line with national today (36.4/100), but +85.7% growth leaves a 2,553-bed gap by 2043.
• Cheshire West and Chester — in line with national today (34/100), but +74.8% growth leaves a 2,207-bed gap by 2043.
• New Forest — in line with national today (31.8/100), but +66.5% growth leaves a 1,932-bed gap by 2043.

Largest projected shortfalls (2043)

All local authorities

East Midlands

Amber Valley Ashfield Bassetlaw Blaby Bolsover Boston Broxtowe Charnwood Chesterfield Derby Derbyshire Dales East Lindsey Erewash Gedling Harborough High Peak Hinckley and Bosworth Leicester Lincoln Mansfield Melton Newark and Sherwood North East Derbyshire North Kesteven North Northamptonshire North West Leicestershire Nottingham Oadby and Wigston Rushcliffe Rutland South Derbyshire South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey West Northamptonshire

East of England

Babergh Basildon Bedford Braintree Breckland Brentwood Broadland Broxbourne Cambridge Castle Point Central Bedfordshire Chelmsford Colchester Dacorum East Cambridgeshire East Hertfordshire East Suffolk Epping Forest Fenland Great Yarmouth Harlow Hertsmere Huntingdonshire Ipswich King's Lynn and West Norfolk Luton Maldon Mid Suffolk North Hertfordshire North Norfolk Norwich Peterborough Rochford South Cambridgeshire South Norfolk Southend-on-Sea St Albans Stevenage Tendring Three Rivers Thurrock Uttlesford Watford Welwyn Hatfield West Suffolk

London

Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster

North East

City of London County Durham Darlington Gateshead Hartlepool Middlesbrough Newcastle upon Tyne North Tyneside Northumberland Redcar and Cleveland South Tyneside Stockton-on-Tees Sunderland

North West

Allerdale Barrow-in-Furness Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Bolton Burnley Bury Carlisle Cheshire East Cheshire West and Chester Chorley Copeland Eden Fylde Halton Hyndburn Knowsley Lancaster Liverpool Manchester Oldham Pendle Preston Ribble Valley Rochdale Rossendale Salford Sefton South Lakeland South Ribble St. Helens Stockport Tameside Trafford Warrington West Lancashire Wigan Wirral Wyre

South East

Adur Arun Ashford Basingstoke and Deane Bracknell Forest Brighton and Hove Buckinghamshire Canterbury Cherwell Chichester Crawley Dartford Dover East Hampshire Eastbourne Eastleigh Elmbridge Epsom and Ewell Fareham Folkestone and Hythe Gosport Gravesham Guildford Hart Hastings Havant Horsham Isle of Wight Lewes Maidstone Medway Mid Sussex Milton Keynes Mole Valley New Forest Oxford Portsmouth Reading Reigate and Banstead Rother Runnymede Rushmoor Sevenoaks Slough South Oxfordshire Southampton Spelthorne Surrey Heath Swale Tandridge Test Valley Thanet Tonbridge and Malling Tunbridge Wells Vale of White Horse Waverley Wealden West Berkshire West Oxfordshire Winchester Windsor and Maidenhead Woking Wokingham Worthing

South West

Bath and North East Somerset Bournemouth Bristol Cheltenham Cornwall Cotswold Dorset East Devon Exeter Forest of Dean Gloucester Isles of Scilly Mendip Mid Devon North Devon North Somerset Plymouth Sedgemoor Somerset West and Taunton South Gloucestershire South Hams South Somerset Stroud Swindon Teignbridge Tewkesbury Torbay Torridge West Devon Wiltshire

West Midlands

Birmingham Bromsgrove Cannock Chase Coventry Dudley East Staffordshire Herefordshire Lichfield Malvern Hills Newcastle-under-Lyme North Warwickshire Nuneaton and Bedworth Redditch Rugby Sandwell Shropshire Solihull South Staffordshire Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent Stratford-on-Avon Tamworth Telford and Wrekin Walsall Warwick Wolverhampton Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest

Yorkshire and The Humber

Barnsley Bradford Calderdale Craven Doncaster East Riding of Yorkshire Hambleton Harrogate Kingston upon Hull Kirklees Leeds North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Richmondshire Rotherham Ryedale Scarborough Selby Sheffield Wakefield York

Method: CQC HSCA Active Locations (beds, nursing/dementia scope, ratings), each home assigned to a local authority by nearest ONS population-weighted centroid; ONS small-area population aged 75+/85+; ONS 2022-based subnational projections (85+, 2025–2043). The 32.5/100 benchmark is computed from the data, not assumed. Open Government Licence. Estimates for research and site screening. Updated July 2026.