How do you appraise a nursery development or site?

A nursery site turns on four questions: how many young children the catchment holds, how many registered places already serve them, how big the gap is against the national rate, and what the site can be worth once a viable setting is open. Threshold Early Years answers all four from a single pin in under 60 seconds, using Ofsted and ONS open data.

What data does Threshold Early Years use?

Supply comes from the Ofsted childcare providers and inspections register — 22,952 registered group settings holding 1.14M places, about 33.5 places per 100 children aged 0–4 nationally. Demand comes from ONS small-area population estimates for children aged 0–4. Land evidence draws on HM Land Registry and the EPC register. All are official open data under the Open Government Licence.

Does Threshold Early Years replace a commissioned catchment report?

No. It is a fast screening tool that tells you which sites deserve the full advisory work and which never did — for a fraction of the cost of a single commissioned report. Its figures are statistical estimates for research and site screening, not a valuation.

Which areas does Threshold Early Years cover?

England, wherever Ofsted registers childcare and the ONS publishes small-area population — effectively the whole country.

Threshold Early Years · for nursery operators & developers

The nursery appraisal, before you sign the lease.

Drop a pin on any site in England. In under 60 seconds: the 0–4 population in the catchment, every competing setting and its Ofsted rating, the places gap, and the maximum site bid that stacks.

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Live now on the engine behind Threshold. Full product, real data — free for 7 days, no card.

The register · every competing settingLU1 · 3-mile catchment

Magic Sparks NurseryLU1 1DX · 0.11 mi

54 placesGOOD

Mini Steps Daycare NurseryLU1 1RX · 0.18 mi

45 placesGOOD

Fun To Learn Nursery & Pre-SchoolLU1 1LZ · 0.42 mi

42 placesINADEQUATE

First Steps Pre-SchoolLU3 1AH · 0.52 mi

69 placesGOOD

+ 69 more settings · 3,834 places between them

25.5places per 100 aged 0–4

15,047 children aged 0–4 · national rate 33.5 — this catchment runs at 76% of it

Undersupplied — a 1,207-place gap at the national rate

Parents choose on Ofsted. So does the appraisal.

A nursery lives or dies on whether local parents can get a place they trust. The appraisal reads the catchment the way a parent does — then prices the site the way a developer must.

01 · THE CHILDREN

Who needs places here

The population aged 0–4 in the catchment from ONS small-area data — the children who fill nursery places.

02 · THE REGISTER

Every competing setting

Each Ofsted-registered group setting in reach: places, type and latest overall effectiveness, on the map.

03 · THE GAP

Places per 100 aged 0–4

The headline number against the national rate of 33.5 — with Inadequate and Requires-Improvement settings flagged as supply that may not survive.

04 · THE SITE

Maximum site bid

A residual appraisal for a nursery scheme: your places, fit-out cost and target return against the local evidence.

The wrong town costs a lease you can't leave. The right one fills before you open.

Nursery sites are 15–25 year commitments signed on a hunch and a drive past the competition. Threshold Early Years is the evidence pass first: screen every site you're offered, the day you're offered it, and save the commissioned study for the one that deserves it.

£99/mo solo · £249/mo team. Start free for 7 days — no card needed.

Nursery site appraisal — questions

The four questions a nursery site turns on, and how Threshold Early Years answers them from official data.

How do you appraise a nursery development or site?: It turns on four questions: how many young children the catchment holds, how many registered places already serve them, how big the gap is against the national rate, and what the site can be worth once a viable setting is open. Threshold Early Years answers all four from a single pin in under 60 seconds.
What counts as the demand and supply?: Demand is the population aged 0–4 in the catchment, from ONS small-area estimates. Supply is every Ofsted-registered group setting — day nurseries and pre-schools on non-domestic premises — with its registered places and latest rating. Across England that's 22,952 settings holding 1.14M places, about 33.5 places per 100 children aged 0–4 — a benchmark we compute from the live data itself, never assume. A catchment materially below it is undersupplied.
Where does the data come from?: Supply from the Ofsted childcare providers and inspections register. Demand from ONS small-area population aged 0–4. Land evidence from HM Land Registry and the EPC register. All official open data under the Open Government Licence.
Does it replace a commissioned catchment report?: No — it tells you which sites deserve the full advisory work and which never did, for a fraction of the cost of a single report. Its figures are statistical estimates for screening, not a valuation.
Which areas are covered?: England, wherever Ofsted registers childcare and the ONS publishes population — effectively the whole country. Childminders are deliberately excluded: this is a tool for group provision and property decisions.

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up to 5 users

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