Care demand across South East
Every local authority in South East, ranked by the care-bed shortfall projected for 2043 at the national rate of 32.5 beds per 100 residents aged 85+. Bed counts are CQC-registered; demand and growth are ONS. Together these authorities are projected to need on the order of 47,815 additional beds by 2043 to hold the national rate.
| Local authority | Beds | Per 100 85+ | Today | 85+ to 2043 | 2043 gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buckinghamshire | 4,862 | 31.7 | in line with national | +66.9% | +3,443 |
| New Forest | 2,750 | 31.8 | in line with national | +66.5% | +1,932 |
| Horsham | 1,345 | 28.3 | in line with national | +82.8% | +1,475 |
| Milton Keynes | 1,742 | 39.7 | oversupplied | +112.6% | +1,294 |
| Isle of Wight | 1,798 | 33.4 | in line with national | +74.0% | +1,242 |
| Lewes | 1,052 | 25 | undersupplied | +62.5% | +1,175 |
| Portsmouth | 935 | 22 | undersupplied | +51.0% | +1,155 |
| Chichester | 1,749 | 33.7 | in line with national | +69.9% | +1,114 |
| Wealden | 2,296 | 37.9 | oversupplied | +71.0% | +1,072 |
| Test Valley | 1,201 | 31.3 | in line with national | +82.1% | +1,072 |
| Wokingham | 1,433 | 32.6 | in line with national | +74.6% | +1,059 |
| Winchester | 1,441 | 34.1 | in line with national | +81.2% | +1,047 |
| Tonbridge and Malling | 697 | 21.1 | undersupplied | +59.6% | +1,013 |
| West Berkshire | 1,296 | 33.7 | in line with national | +82.3% | +982 |
| Havant | 1,388 | 31.2 | in line with national | +57.3% | +890 |
| Vale of White Horse | 1,508 | 37.9 | oversupplied | +85.1% | +884 |
| Oxford | 703 | 24 | undersupplied | +64.9% | +868 |
| Cherwell | 1,490 | 38.9 | oversupplied | +88.4% | +855 |
| Basingstoke and Deane | 1,427 | 37.7 | oversupplied | +83.7% | +831 |
| Medway | 1,848 | 35.9 | in line with national | +59.9% | +829 |
| Brighton and Hove | 2,118 | 35.9 | in line with national | +53.2% | +820 |
| Crawley | 361 | 15.3 | undersupplied | +54.4% | +820 |
| Arun | 2,895 | 41.6 | oversupplied | +64.1% | +818 |
| Ashford | 1,099 | 33.9 | in line with national | +81.3% | +812 |
| West Oxfordshire | 1,467 | 40.6 | oversupplied | +92.8% | +796 |
| Tunbridge Wells | 1,365 | 35.6 | in line with national | +71.5% | +769 |
| South Oxfordshire | 1,784 | 41.8 | oversupplied | +82.9% | +756 |
| Canterbury | 2,084 | 41.6 | oversupplied | +74.4% | +755 |
| Hart | 763 | 28.7 | in line with national | +75.0% | +749 |
| Eastleigh | 1,424 | 37.8 | oversupplied | +77.4% | +746 |
| East Hampshire | 1,942 | 45.1 | oversupplied | +91.3% | +738 |
| Bracknell Forest | 701 | 29.7 | in line with national | +86.1% | +727 |
| Swale | 1,019 | 31.2 | in line with national | +64.0% | +723 |
| Fareham | 1,547 | 37.1 | in line with national | +65.7% | +702 |
| Maidstone | 1,817 | 40.4 | oversupplied | +72.3% | +701 |
| Dover | 1,307 | 36.8 | in line with national | +74.1% | +700 |
| Folkestone and Hythe | 1,534 | 39.8 | oversupplied | +74.7% | +653 |
| Guildford | 1,268 | 33.8 | in line with national | +56.7% | +643 |
| Sevenoaks | 1,352 | 35.1 | in line with national | +59.3% | +642 |
| Thanet | 1,632 | 37.6 | oversupplied | +61.1% | +640 |
| Mole Valley | 1,140 | 33.9 | in line with national | +57.9% | +586 |
| Spelthorne | 675 | 25 | undersupplied | +38.8% | +543 |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 1,920 | 42.8 | oversupplied | +68.3% | +534 |
| Mid Sussex | 2,099 | 45 | oversupplied | +73.6% | +533 |
| Tandridge | 1,034 | 36 | in line with national | +66.2% | +516 |
| Gosport | 824 | 34.2 | in line with national | +71.0% | +515 |
| Southampton | 1,857 | 39.4 | oversupplied | +54.5% | +512 |
| Adur | 563 | 26.4 | undersupplied | +50.3% | +480 |
| Gravesham | 681 | 26.5 | undersupplied | +36.5% | +459 |
| Epsom and Ewell | 577 | 27.2 | undersupplied | +49.5% | +455 |
| Rother | 2,006 | 42.8 | oversupplied | +60.5% | +441 |
| Reading | 1,013 | 35.2 | in line with national | +55.4% | +439 |
| Waverley | 2,260 | 47 | oversupplied | +70.3% | +404 |
| Slough | 601 | 29.9 | in line with national | +53.4% | +400 |
| Woking | 1,000 | 36.3 | in line with national | +55.7% | +393 |
| Eastbourne | 2,068 | 45.1 | oversupplied | +64.2% | +380 |
| Runnymede | 926 | 36.9 | in line with national | +53.3% | +324 |
| Elmbridge | 1,981 | 45.9 | oversupplied | +62.8% | +303 |
| Rushmoor | 799 | 44.5 | oversupplied | +77.0% | +235 |
| Dartford | 933 | 40.8 | oversupplied | +51.2% | +191 |
| Worthing | 2,028 | 50 | oversupplied | +62.6% | +116 |
| Reigate and Banstead | 2,328 | 52.8 | oversupplied | +70.3% | +114 |
| Hastings | 1,503 | 55.8 | oversupplied | +70.5% | 11 spare |
| Surrey Heath | 1,854 | 68.4 | oversupplied | +69.5% | 361 spare |
Other regions: East Midlands East of England London North East North West South West West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber
All areas & national picture · Threshold Care
Estimates from CQC HSCA Active Locations and ONS population + 2022-based projections under the Open Government Licence. For research and site screening, not a commissioned feasibility study. Updated July 2026.